By Susie Gemmell
As the Liberal party celebrates its by-election wins over the weekend, one outcome should not be overlooked. In Bradfield, the safest Liberal seat in NSW, with no Labor candidate, the Liberal party suffered a 3.3% drop on their primary vote in 2007, polling 55.7% primary votes.
Compared with the 2004 results in Bradfield (63.6% primary votes to Brendan Nelson) the weekend delivered a 7.9% swing away from the Liberal party in their heartland. The 2007 election result in Bradfield was a low base given a 3% swing to Labor, and given other losses on the north side, most notably in Bennelong. ... more
Historically by-elections have favoured opposition candidates. In 2005 during the Howard Government the Werriwa by-election gave an easy victory to the Labor candidate with a 2.9% swing. Under Labor in 2008
the Nationals retained Gippsland with a 6% swing. Tony Abbott won Warringah at a by-election in 1994 during the Keating Government with a 3% swing. So a swing against the Liberals' 2007 primary vote is hardly a resounding victory.
In a by-election against a two year old government, in the middle of Tony Abbott’s leadership honeymoon, with a highly polarised choice, these factors ran in favour of an increased Liberal vote. Measured against the 2004 base they failed to attract that vote.
The Liberal party held its 2007 two party preferred margin only because Labor was missing in action. If Labor had fielded a candidate the swing against the Liberals could have been much higher. The Greens achieved a similar two party preferred result to that achieved by Labor in 2007, a good election for Labor.
With 22 candidates to choose from, one in four people in Bradfield gave their primary vote to the Greens. The two party preferred vote showed more than one in three people placed the Greens ahead of the Liberal candidate. Behind closed doors I imagine both major parties are contemplating this result. Whether these votes were cast on principle or in protest, it shows a new level of acceptance for the Greens as an alternative party.
The disquiet in Bradfield in the days leading up to the election was palpable, and it had to have caused concern in the Liberal camp. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Brendan Nelson, Bill Heffernan and Barry O'Farrell were just a few of the Liberal heavyweights out campaigning with Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher at polling booths across the electorate. They would have been sure of a win but less confident of a healthy margin.
The key messages from this election campaign is that the public needs more information on the options for taking action on climate change, and that most loyal Liberal voters were not ready to punish their party at the polls despite their dismay over the public infighting of the previous week.
The Liberal spin that climate change was not a big issue in the Bradfield by-election campaign or that the result is an endorsement of Tony Abbott's position is an overstatement. I met enough people from all sides of politics who expressed genuine concerns about our climate future to know that climate change is a very important issue to
voters.
Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott would be foolish to ignore the climate change message from the Bradfield by-election campaign.
Susie Gemmell was the Greens candidate in the Bradfield by-election.