Climate Change and Development

Future development activities in WA will be shaped by how climate change manifests itself

By Hon. Robin Chapple, MLC for Mining and Pastoral

Inspired by discussions over Westport options in Cockburn Sound, we’re obliged to think about long-term development and decentralization possibilities for WA ‒ raising questions over the necessities and requisites in directly servicing future WA communities.

The determining factor for future developments – both metro and regional – will be the State’s ongoing experience with a changing climate. In the South West, average annual temperature increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius (°C) between 1910 and 2013. Meanwhile, rainfall has decreased in this area; consistent with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This cannot be explained solely by natural climate variability or changed land use, such as land clearing. As a result, agricultural water supplies have decreased in the South West; demonstrating the need for long-term logistical planning with respect to ‘developments’ and usage.

This variation is not unique to the South West. In Perth, between 1981 and 2011 the annual average intensity of hot spells increased by 1.5°C; the annual number of events increased by 1; the annual average number of hot spell days increased by 3; and the first hot spell occurred 3 days earlier, compared to conditions between 1950 and 1980. It Is paramount that our discussions of ‘development’ explores the notion that the needs and wants of the population will be much different in future generations. With the South West and Peel Regions drying out we must rely more heavily on our Northern lands to grow food for domestic consumption and export. This necessitates a different system of agriculture and transport – ones that can make use of the stark differences in tropical wet/dry seasons, and the incumbent infrastructure and supply chains.

Over the last 60 years, annual rainfall has increased over northern and interior WA. A recent study of tree growth in the Pilbara found that 5 of the 10 wettest years in the last 210 years occurred in the last two decades. Additionally, between 1910 and 2013, average annual temperature increased by 1.0°C in the interior of the state. Meanwhile Kimberley temperatures have increased in the dry season (Perth Winter) and decreased in the wet season (Perth Summer). As Perth and the greater Peel dries out, infrastructure will be needed overnight to cover the production deficits in the south. This will require a novel approach; disconnected from existing production lines, or existing agricultural or transport infrastructure. It follows that the response we will be obliged to make, against our changing climate, will not follow our existing freight and supply systems, and will require time and money to develop.   

The State’s climate is changing. Our relationship to land – in the social, biological, and economic senses – will be forced to change with it. The displacement of people and livestock from the South West will alter the State’s logistics. In the event that the Gascoyne and Coastal north become the State’s agricultural area, it follows that developments such as ports would become priority infrastructure in the Regions. This is compounded by the presence of industry across the North and Interior, who will no-doubt seek to support that infrastructure closer to their own premises, rather than those being currently developed in the metro area.

One can only speculate as to the fate of the current State infrastructure. By 2030 it is estimated that WA will have a population of around 3.25 million people. As the climate changes, the ability to support this population will be at risk. Supplying water to the greater metro area will be the biggest infrastructure challenge for the coming Governments, seconded by falling productivity and mass erosion and salinity. It is impossible to say what will happen then, however; there is considerable risk that our metro infrastructure will be superseded by more viable options. The Ports of Fremantle, Rockingham and Cockburn Sound may prove unnecessary in a city without drinking water – even more so if our northern ports become the site of mineral exports.

Infrastructure developments evidence economic development, however, in the face of intensifying climate change, we must really consider their impacts and their lifespan. Infrastructure is a welcome facet of development, serving (in best instance) social, enterprise, and governmental interests. That being said, these are uncertain times. The only way to safeguard livelihoods and production in the coming decades is to prioritise responses to climate change issues. We’re not prepared for mass State-wide changes to our farming and logistics. Developers must reconcile the fact that, in fifty years, WA will be unrecognisable. The needs and wants of the State are influenced by our land and land-use. The guarantee of progress, given tacitly by the ceaseless development in this State, will prove itself empty in the face of climate change.