The Northern Myth … Continued

A critical look at irrigation options for the Fitzroy River Catchment in the Kimberley

By Chris Johansen, Green Issue Co-editor

In 2018 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) published a report commissioned by the Australian Government on ‘Water resource assessment for the Fitzroy catchment’ in the Kimberley of WA. This study resulted from a ‘White Paper on Developing Northern Australia’ released in 2015. These publications caught the eye of The Pew Charitable Trusts, a philanthropic organization advocating for environmental concerns, including environmental conservation in the Kimberley region. And, in turn, caught my eye, causing my immediate reaction of ‘Oh no, déjà vu all over again’.

Some history

In my youth, in the 1950s, I was fairly effectively indoctrinated with the idea of the urgency of ‘developing northern Australia’. Considering the near invasion of Australia by Japan in WW2, the slogan ‘populate or perish’ was popular, particularly with respect to our northern regions – to provide a buffer to possible future invasion by the then burgeoning populations of Asian countries. The north was indeed proposed as a possible food bowl to mitigate the looming population-induced food crisis in Asia and Africa in the 1950’s. However, it was never clearly explained how this food if it were to be produced in Australia would get to needy countries – they couldn’t afford to buy it and philanthropic sentiment was not so great that Australia would increase food production to meaningful quantities to be simply given away.

Much of the north was considered as ‘wilderness’ back then and, as a corollary, awaiting ‘development’. Of particular excitement in Western Australia was the proposed damming of the Ord River to facilitate irrigated agriculture. Further, in the 1950s the concept of ‘terra nullius’, and the treatment of Indigenous peoples accordingly, was predominant – no worries about having to deal with those pesky Aboriginal land rights.

However, in 1965 my initial enthusiasm for Ord River ‘development’ came to a screeching halt. A major theme of one of my lecturers in Agricultural Economics at the University of Western Australia, Dr Henry P. Schapper, was the sheer economic folly of Ord River ‘development’. He used it as an illustration of how to do benefit:cost analyses (BCA) in agricultural development proposals – predicting a miserably low BCA for the Ord and a gross waste of taxpayer money. Other economists of the time made similar predictions, perhaps the most notable being Dr Bruce Davidson who published the seminal book ‘The Northern Myth’ in 1972.

And how did these predictions pan out? Grudnoff and Campbell (2017) referred to a detailed BCA for the Ord River development for the period 1959 (initiation of construction of Ord Diversion Dam) to 1991. The public return was just 17 cents for every dollar invested. When private costs and returns are included the overall return for that period was 44 cents in the dollar. From 1992 to 2014 a further A$437m of public money has been spent but details of private expenditure and total returns are incomplete, and an updated BCA is recommended (Grudnoff and Campbell, 2017). They don’t expect an updated BCA to be much different from the 1959-91 outcome.

This economic failure can be attributed to many factors – failure to identify suitable crops, cropping patterns and agronomy, severe pest attacks (e.g. boll worm on cotton, magpie geese on rice), underestimation of production costs, fluctuating market prices, failure to achieve economy of scale and thus local processing (e.g. sugar mill), the tyranny of distance inflating transport and produce preservation costs, etc. Many of these constraints would have been predictable with proper ex ante analysis (predictive economic analysis).

Many crops have been tried in the Ord scheme, including cotton, rice, sugar, chickpeas, but none have proved economically sustainable. The main crops showing some persistence are tree crops, principally mango and sandalwood. Mango suffers from the tyranny of distance to markets and year-to-year fluctuation in yield and quality and sandalwood viability is threatened by synthetic sandalwood oil.

And, there is another historical irrigation failure on the Fitzroy River itself, the Camballin rice production scheme in the 1950s. This scheme closed due mainly to failure to account for the risk of intermittent flooding of the Fitzroy River, unpredictably destroying crops and infrastructure.

Land and water resources

The 2015 White Paper goes ‘gung ho’ on exploiting the water resources of the North, primarily for irrigated agriculture. Reminiscent of the then rude slogan I had pasted above my desk at University of WA in the late 60s: ‘If it moves, shoot it; if it stands up, chop it down; if its in the ground, dig it up.’ And I can now add to that: ‘if it flows, dam it.’ The consequently commissioned CSIRO study was meant to examine the feasibility of harnessing the water resources in the Fitzroy River Catchment (Martuwarra in Indigenous language), primarily for agriculture. The CSIRO study authors insist it is a dispassionate description of the natural resource base, devoid of recommendations for its exploitation, but governments have a habit of using such reports to justify where their ideology takes them. For example, the recent Government approval of Adani’s water management plan despite a negative report by CSIRO and Geoscience Australia.

The CSIRO study for the Fitzroy River Catchment documents that there are large areas of soil with suitable physical properties for irrigation development, more than enough to cater for the potential water resources available. It also warns of the dangers of salinization, due to a rise in the water table with irrigation and deposition of subsoil salt near the soil surface. This a common feature of irrigation schemes in arid and semi-arid tropical regions across the world and a particular risk in Australia where much of the landscape is laden with salt.

However, the CSIRO study does not give any insight into the native nutrient status of the soils which have suitable physical properties, suggesting that this characterization is yet to be done – a costly and time-consuming process. Before initiating any meaningful cropping endeavour it would be necessary to be aware of likely nutrient deficiencies, and potential toxicities, and the fertilizer/amendment strategies required to alleviate them. Further, fertilizer requirements would differ depending on crops grown and the rotations followed. Fertilizer input is a major production cost in cropping and the economics of nutrient amendment would need to be at least approximately known before any investment in irrigation facilities could be assessed, let alone committed.

The rainfall pattern of the Fitzroy Basin is tropical monsoon, with most rainfall occurring during the summer, from December to March. The annual average is around 500 mm but year-to-year variation is about 30% higher than that observed at rainfall stations in similar climates elsewhere in the world. Further, relatively dry years and wet years tend to be clumped together, mitigating against an even input of rainwater across years to any type of reservoir. This would necessarily complicate irrigation management over time. Rainfall in tropical regions is generally considered to increase with climate change, due to greater evaporation from heated tropical oceans. However, due to climate perturbation rainfall events are likely to become more random and storms more severe, creating further challenges for surface water management even though total precipitation over the longer term may increase.

Due to the extremely high temperatures in the Kimberley at this time, potential evaporation and potential evapotranspiration are at their highest, leading to high evaporation from standing water and high plant demand for water – the gift of rainfall almost immediately snatched away! This would necessitate some form of anti-evaporation measure for smaller surface reservoirs.

The CSIRO study indicates that there are considerable groundwater resources in the Fitzroy Basin but that they have not been sufficiently characterized to assess their longer-term irrigation potential. For irrigation based on groundwater to be sustainable, rates of recharge would need to understood, as well as the potential for conveying salts and other potentially harmful minerals to the surface. Most irrigation systems based on pumped groundwater around the world have not proved sustainable, due to extraction exceeding recharge and the water table declining, e.g. the Indo-Gangetic Plain where recharge rates are high but extraction rates higher. However, to circumvent the problem of high evaporation of surface water in this region, possibilities for use of underground water would be worth more detailed investigation.

What are the realistic irrigation prospects?

Most field and tree crops that are adapted to tropical and subtropical climates can grow in the Fitzroy River Basin region, if they are provided with adequate water, nutrients and plant protection. However, there are additional factors to consider if investments in irrigation facilities are to be made to support new cropping enterprises of medium to large scale. These include the future medium- to long-term demand for candidate crop products, domestically and for export. They also include the comparative advantage in establishing a new production site, as against increasing production at existing sites. If they are going to be viable in the Fitzroy Basin they would have already been proven as viable in the Ord River scheme. Another factor is the economy of scale needed to render production of a particular crop viable over a longer term, especially considering the remoteness of the location. This relates to the degree of need to establish industry-scale processing facilities adjacent to the crop production area to make that crop viable (e.g. sugar mill).

The most likely candidate annual field crops for the Fitzroy Basin, including chickpea, soybean, peanut and cotton, have been extensively tested in the adjacent Ord region, over decades, and have been found to be unsustainable for various reasons (Grudnoff and Campbell 2017). The only sustainable enterprise at the Ord River seems to be tree plantation (e.g. sandalwood) and fodder production for the cattle industry. However, if there is a perceived need to expand production of fields crops in the Kimberley then it would seem more logical to utilize the existing irrigation infrastructure at the Ord River rather than start from scratch in establishing a new irrigation scheme in the Fitzroy catchment.

Due primarily to the remoteness of the location, economy of scale would be a major consideration for field crop establishment. For most candidate crops one would imagine the cultivation area required for economic viability would likely extend into the thousands of hectares. This would necessitate a large reservoir, requiring damming of the Fitzroy River itself or one of its larger tributaries. For various ecological and indigenous cultural reasons, as mentioned in the CSIRO study, this would raise many problems. An alternative might be use of underground water, if fresh water reserves are large enough and recharge is sufficient for sustainability ‒ presumably yet to be established.

There are possibilities for utilizing smaller scale reservoirs, including underground water, for other types of agriculture and silviculture requiring a lesser quantum of irrigation water. Smaller scale reservoirs could be established using a watershed approach (Shambu Prasad et al. 2006) or by establishing smaller dams across waterways where downstream effects would be inconsequential. However, measures would need to be taken to minimize surface water evaporation (e.g. with anti-evaporants) and drainage from the base. Underground water reserves in or near target cultivation sites would need comprehensive evaluation as to their sustainability.

Such captured water could be used for supplementary irrigation of fast growing tropical forage legumes and grasses (Humphreys 2005), to support the major established agricultural industry of the region – beef cattle production. Historically and to the present this has been based on free range grazing, with resultant sub-optimal nutrition of animals, slow growth rates and lower quality meat production. Further, this free grazing limits regeneration of native vegetation, leading to soil erosion, deterioration of soil quality and lesser native plant biomass. Indeed if cattle production could be focussed around locations producing high quality fodder year-round, this would improve animal production and permit regeneration of native vegetation, particularly trees, in areas vacated of cattle (assuming that devegetation does not continue due to large populations of feral herbivores). Revegetation of native flora is becoming an ever more important consideration for carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change.

Smaller scale capture of water could also be deployed for the cultivation of trees, for various purposes. High value trees such as teak, mahogany and sandalwood would be candidates, as suggested in the CSIRO study. Indeed sandalwood cultivation has turned out to be the most sustainable option for the Ord scheme, although the use of synthetic sandalwood oil may diminish prospects for this enterprise. Orchard crops could include mango (with harvesting times different from mango grown at higher latitudes), guava, various tropical citrus (e.g. lime), lychee, avocado, cashew, macadamia, etc. Such tree cultivation could provide long term employment options and income for the existing local population.

A recent ex ante analysis of irrigation options in the Fitzroy Basin by Connor et al. (2019) found that only mosaic irrigation from pumped ground water for fodder production for cattle is likely to result in a benefit:cost ratio exceeding 1.0, and only then with assured markets for high quality, high value beef.

Development alternatives to irrigated cropping

However, there is more to life than just pondering over BCAs. There has to be for the Fitzroy River Basin as pondering over the benefit:cost ratios of irrigation development there is rather discouraging. Other aspects of this region offer much greater prospects for improving human well-being and of the entire natural resource base where those humans live. Most people who actually live in the Fitzroy River Basin are Aboriginal and thus the term ‘development’ should be focussed around improvement of their well-being. Irrigation development in the Kimberley has not been of much help in this regard previously (Connor et al. 2019). In continuing colonial mode, the Kimberley has been seen as a location of various natural resources just waiting for outsiders to come in and exploit, maybe in the process providing a few low-paid jobs to Indigenous inhabitants. About time this attitude changed, to focus on what is best for the people who actually live there.

Livelihoods of Aboriginal people in particular involve much more than just financial considerations. It includes strong social and spiritual dimensions with close connections to nature, which need to be integrated into any development effort. The highly fluctuating stream flows of the Fitzroy River Basin, ranging from floodplain flooding to rapid drying out to form intermittent waterholes along a riverbed, has created a complex, diverse and unique ecology. It can easily be understood how human induced interference with the hydrology would be ecologically catastrophic. The Aboriginal experience, from obtaining food to spirituality, has evolved in this dynamic ecology and its disruption would surely be disruptive to their overall well-being.

There are few reasonably well watered ecologies (i.e. not deserts) in temperate or tropical regions that remain as pristine (unmodified by humans) as the Fitzroy River Basin, and the Kimberley generally. Nevertheless, rangeland cattle grazing and feral animal introduction have had some adverse ecological impact. This makes the location a hotspot for ecological studies and ‘natural environment’ tourism, which will increase in intrinsic value over time. A treasure worth retaining.

Connor et al. (2019) have summarized the prospects for development, based around improvement of Indigenous well-being, as follows:                                    

• Carbon sequestration through improved land management, involving controlled burning, vermin control and revegetation programs.
• Development of bush food (e.g. Kakadu plum) and traditional medicine enterprises.
• Tourism enterprises whereby the rich natural history and ecological diversity is interwoven with Indigenous spirituality.
• Art and culture development and enterprises.
• Participation in education and science endeavours to further explore and interpret this unique environment, to contribute to general ecological understanding (which we humans had better beef up on soon if we are to survive in a rapidly ecologically deteriorating world).

Prospects for financial return on such enterprises are promising and their promotion would significantly address the social and economic disadvantage now faced by Aboriginal people of the region (Connor et al. 2019).

It could be argued that mining, including fossil fuel extraction, could be another development avenue for the region. The moratorium on fracking in the region has recently been lifted. These disruptions to the natural landscape would have at least as deleterious effects as large scale irrigation developments as describe above. And we really do not want the Fitzroy River Basin contributing to global greenhouse emissions. Rather we want it to be drawing down carbon through revegetation efforts, managed by the local inhabitants.

Conclusion

The Fitzroy River Catchment, which we should now start calling  Martuwarra, is a unique, relatively pristine ecosystem of ever-increasing value in terms of understanding of ecosystem evolution and function, education, tourism and cultural significance. Plans to exploit it for development of irrigated agriculture would seriously compromise that value. In any case, learning from the 60 years’ experience of the nearby Ord River irrigation scheme, as well as recent ex ante analysis, most irrigated cropping ventures requiring significant modification of catchment hydrology would be loss making ventures. The only such ventures approaching economic viability would be fodder production for beef cattle and supplemental irrigation to some tree crops. However, if the region is to be sustainably ‘developed’, to the prime benefit of the Indigenous inhabitants, then development activities need to place these people front and centre. They have thousands of years experience in living in and understanding this environment. Enterprises that would improve Indigenous well-being, as well as increase understanding of and protect this environment, are suggested to include land management to maximize carbon sequestration, commercialization of local bush food and medicines, participation in scientific research and education, cultural development and tourism.

References

Connor, J.D., Regan, C. and Nicol, T. (2019) Environmental, cultural and social capital as a core asset for the Martuwarra (Fitzroy River) and its people. UniSA.

Grudnoff, M. and Campbell, R. (2017) Dam the expense. The Ord River irrigation scheme and the development of northern Australia. Discussion Paper, The Australia Institute, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Humphreys, L.R. (2005) Tropical Pasture Utilization. Cambridge University Press

Shambu Prasad, C., Hall, A.J. and Wani, S.P. (2006) Institutional History of Watershed Research: The Evolution of ICRISAT's Work on Natural Resources in India. Journal of SAT Agricultural Research 2(1): 1-35.

Header photo: Fitzroy River at Geikie Gorge, The Kimberley, WA. _{W. Bulach, Creative Commons}