The Doomsday Clock. Stopped?

The Doomsday Clock stays at the same setting as in January 2023, despite an obvious increase in existential threats during the previous year. Why?

By Chris Johansen, Green Issue Co-editor

A depiction of the Doomsday Clock first appeared on the cover of the inaugural edition of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947. The Bulletin was established by a group of nuclear scientists who had been involved in developing the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but were having second thoughts about what they had unleashed. Those scientists included Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer.

The Cold War with the Soviet Union was then underway and it was increasingly realized that that further developments in nuclear weapons technology could lead to catastrophic consequences for humanity – culminating in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The aim of the Bulletin was to warn of the emerging danger and the Clock was used as an indicator of how close to midnight, or MAD, humanity is.

In 1947, the Clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight but in subsequent years – it was reset every following year – into the 1950s the minute hand edged close to midnight. It reached 2 minutes to midnight in 1953 with the realization that the Soviet Union was building a nuclear arsenal, that nuclear technology would likely spread to other nations and the development of much more powerful hydrogen bombs. Subsequently the minute hand fluctuated between 3 and 12 minutes to midnight until in 1991 it reached its furthest away from midnight – 17 minutes – with the end of the Cold War and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

While fear of nuclear holocaust was the dominant existential threat to humanity after World War II, other existential threats have been gradually realized, such as large meteor strikes, climate change, global pandemics occurring naturally or created by biotechnology and, more recently, AI. These have been increasingly factored into the setting of the minute hand each January.

Since 1991, increasing realization of these existential threats, and how we are edging towards them, has pushed the minute hand ever closer to midnight. In January 2023 it was set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been.

In January 2024, the minute hand was left where it was, at 90 seconds to midnight. I’m afraid I don’t follow the logic of this as it is clear that existential threats to human well-being, and indeed life on this planet, have markedly worsened over the previous 12 months. Such events as:

• The ongoing Ukraine war, which has essentially stagnated but no doubt causing the proponents to think of more drastic means of breaking that deadlock.
• The Gaza invasion with its increasing risks of expanding into a widespread Middle East conflict, with some of the likely participants having nuclear weapons (Israel and possibly Iran) and the temptation to use them.
•  Increasing tensions with China, promoted by some Western and East Asian countries.
• The acceleration of climate change, with the planet reaching the critical level of 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures in 2023, years ahead of predictions.
• The rapid and unrestrained development of AI with its increasing ability to override human control.
• Increasing political chaos in West Africa and the demise of democracy in many countries (e.g. Argentina, India, Bangladesh).

These events at least would, in my view, surely push the hand to 60 seconds before midnight, at least. My final compromise would be 70 seconds.

So what has happened to stop the Clock, this instructive indicator of the human condition? Did its battery run down or does it need a wind-up? A more likely explanation is that the keepers of the Clock, in the Bulletin, were afraid of spooking the populace.

If the situation is too dire, then many concerned folk just turn off, rather than become further inspired to do something about it. This is a dilemma faced in the climate movement, particularly by those cognisant with the most recent climate data. If this is widely publicized, along with an assessment of rate of onset of catastrophic events, then many would be put off activism thinking that it is too late to do much about it. So we, may as well “eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we …”.

But I believe that those cognisant with the data do have an obligation to present it as it is, and dispassionately say what it means. OK, many will tune out, but hopefully there will be enough left for a last ditch battle to avoid catastrophe. That is why I believe the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock should have moved closer to midnight in January 2024.

Header photo: The Doomsday Clock at 1.5 minutes to midnight. _{Credit: RicHard-59 CC4.0}

_{[Opinions expressed are those of the author and not official policy of Greens WA]}